Interpreting rural change in Malaysia     

David Preston  Ibrahim Ngah 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2012,33(3):351-364

Relatively little in the literature on rural change in Southeast Asia engages with Malaysia, where the population is becoming urban‐based more rapidly than in many countries in the region. The literature on change in rural Malaysia during the past 40 years, supplemented by our own research, is used to identify key features of such change, which are considered in the context of existing interpretations to arrive at deeper understandings of rural change. Existing conceptualizations of rural change, it is suggested, must account for the diversity of roles taken by individuals daily, seasonally and at different life stages, as well as in multiple locations. Further attention needs to be paid to gender, generation and class among those experiencing change. Processes of rural (and urban) changes will continue and their complexity will reflect cultural and technological evolutions that affect individuals, households and communities throughout the world.  相似文献   

Efficient Bayesian sensor placement algorithm for structural identification: a general approach for multi‐type sensory systems          下载免费PDF全文

Ka‐Veng Yuen  Sin‐Chi Kuok 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(5):757-774

In this paper, a Bayesian sequential sensor placement algorithm, based on the robust information entropy, is proposed for multi‐type of sensors. The presented methodology has two salient features. It is a holistic approach such that the overall performance of various types of sensors at different locations is assessed. Therefore, it provides a rational and effective strategy to design the sensor configuration, which optimizes the use of various available resources. This sequential algorithm is very efficient due to its Bayesian nature, in which prior distribution can be incorporated. Therefore, it avoids the possible unidentifiability problem encountered in a sequential process, which starts with small number of sensors. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated using a shear building and a lattice tower with consideration of up to four types of sensors. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

High‐temporal resolution fluvial sediment source fingerprinting with uncertainty: a Bayesian approach          下载免费PDF全文

Richard J. Cooper  Tobias Krueger  Kevin M. Hiscock  Barry G. Rawlins 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(1):78-92

This contribution addresses two developing areas of sediment fingerprinting research. Specifically, how to improve the temporal resolution of source apportionment estimates whilst minimizing analytical costs and, secondly, how to consistently quantify all perceived uncertainties associated with the sediment mixing model procedure. This first matter is tackled by using direct X‐ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRFS) and diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) analyses of suspended particulate matter (SPM) covered filter papers in conjunction with automatic water samplers. This method enables SPM geochemistry to be quickly, accurately, inexpensively and non‐destructively monitored at high‐temporal resolution throughout the progression of numerous precipitation events. We then employed a Bayesian mixing model procedure to provide full characterization of spatial geochemical variability, instrument precision and residual error to yield a realistic and coherent assessment of the uncertainties associated with source apportionment estimates. Applying these methods to SPM data from the River Wensum catchment, UK, we have been able to apportion, with uncertainty, sediment contributions from eroding arable topsoils, damaged road verges and combined subsurface channel bank and agricultural field drain sources at 60‐ and 120‐minute resolution for the duration of five precipitation events. The results presented here demonstrate how combining Bayesian mixing models with the direct spectroscopic analysis of SPM‐covered filter papers can produce high‐temporal resolution source apportionment estimates that can assist with the appropriate targeting of sediment pollution mitigation measures at a catchment level. © 2015 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change     

《Advances in water resources》2015

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty.  相似文献   

地貌学的基本范式及其在教学科研中的作用     

高红山  潘保田  李炳元  李琼 《地理科学》2015,35(12):1591-1598

自吉尔伯特和戴维斯的时代开始,地貌学的研究即已遵从理论优先的观察背负模式。从以描述为主的侵蚀循环学说、强调定量分析的地表过程、水力几何学到目前系统地貌学的研究,此中充盈着大量的范式、原理和基本概念,它们是地貌学作为一门科学存在和发展的理论基础。在课堂教学与课程发展层面上,从地貌学史的角度注重对基本范式的归纳和讲授,是培养与激发学生学习兴趣和专业素养的主要途径。通过对经典文献的研读,学生可以从中直接学习到详尽地描述和思辨方法,同时还会意识到对地貌学思想的传承和理论的接受应该批判地进行。在学科建设和科学研究方面,基于范式研究是利用共同的学术语言融入国际地貌学界的前提,凝练学科整体关心的科学问题,开展有组织持续有效的基础理论研究,是复兴国内地貌学的最佳途径。  相似文献   

Learning soil parameters and updating geotechnical reliability estimates under spatial variability – theory and application to shallow foundations     

Iason Papaioannou  Daniel Straub 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(1):116-128

ABSTRACT

Field data is commonly used to determine soil parameters for geotechnical analysis. Bayesian analysis allows combining field data with other information on soil parameters in a consistent manner. We show that the spatial variability of the soil properties and the associated measurements can be captured through two different modelling approaches. In the first approach, a single random variable (RV) represents the soil property within the area of interest, while the second approach models the spatial variability explicitly with a random field (RF). We apply the Bayesian concept exemplarily to the reliability assessment of a shallow foundation in a silty soil with spatially variable data. We show that the simpler RV approach is applicable in cases where the measurements do not influence the correlation structure of the soil property at the vicinity of the foundation. In other cases, it is expected to underestimate the reliability, and a RF model is required to obtain accurate results.  相似文献   

利用限制性最大似然方法和贝叶斯方法估计大菱鲆生长性状的遗传参数。   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

官健涛  王伟继  胡玉龙  王陌桑  田涛  孔杰 《海洋学报(英文版)》2017,36(6):47-51

Bayesian and restricted maximum likelihood(REML) approaches were used to estimate the genetic parameters in a cultured turbot Scophthalmus maximus stock. The data set consisted of harvest body weight from 2 462progenies(17 months old) from 28 families that were produced through artificial insemination using 39 parent fish. An animal model was applied to partition each weight value into a fixed effect, an additive genetic effect, and a residual effect. The average body weight of each family, which was measured at 110 days post-hatching, was considered as a covariate. For Bayesian analysis, heritability and breeding values were estimated using both the posterior mean and mode from the joint posterior conditional distribution. The results revealed that for additive genetic variance, the posterior mean estimate( δ_a~2=9 320) was highest but with the smallest residual variance,REML estimates( δ_a~2=8 088) came second and the posterior mode estimate( δ_a~2=7 849) was lowest. The corresponding three heritability estimates followed the same trend as additive genetic variance and they were all high. The Pearson correlations between each pair of the three estimates of breeding values were all high,particularly that between the posterior mean and REML estimates(0.996 9). These results reveal that the differences between Bayesian and REML methods in terms of estimation of heritability and breeding values were small. This study provides another feasible method of genetic parameter estimation in selective breeding programs of turbot.  相似文献   

Discard management: A spatial multi-criteria approach     

《Marine Policy》2017

Discard management needs to draw on scientific research and advice, usually supported by specific statistical modeling analysis. A wide range of statistical analysis methods were applied to fishery data in an attempt to distinguish factors that influence the species discard composition. While such approaches are important, they are still incomplete for disaggregating the economic and spatial-temporal factors for analyzing of this process and obtain a whole view of this issue. Our study aims to fill this gap by identifying, describing, and quantifying factors that influence discards of trawl fisheries using a multivariate approach based on five complementary aspects: “economic”, “vessel characteristics”, “spatial”, “temporal” and “environmental”. In addition, a spatial multi-criteria approach were used to investigate discard hot-spot areas using ecological criteria such as vulnerability and resilience of the discarded species. Using these ecological criteria will concentrate conservation efforts on the most relevant sites minimizing discards of a variety of potentially vulnerable species. This approach was applied to a case study of a multi-species demersal bottom trawl fisheries in north Spain, Cantabrian Sea (ICES area VIIIc). Results showed how spatial and economic factors highly affect species discard composition, identifying specific spatial-temporal discard hot-spots to be preferentially avoided by fishers. Mitigation measures for future fisheries management strategies should be implemented at multiple stages of the discarding process, both in the selection of the fishing grounds and the economic valorization of the discarded species.  相似文献   

基于空间与区域视角的生态系统服务地理学框架   总被引：12，自引：4，他引：8  

李双成  王珏  朱文博  张津  刘娅  高阳  王阳  李琰 《地理学报》2014,69(11):1628-1639

生态系统服务研究现已成为国内外的研究热点。回顾生态系统服务研究的历程可以发现,研究范式正在从自然科学研究范式向自然科学与社会科学综合研究范式转向。生态系统服务研究更加重视时空异质性、更加关注流动性与区域效应,更加强调生态系统服务对人类福祉的作用。在生态系统结构、过程与功能─服务─人类收益与福祉级联框架中,地理学的主要分支都可以找到自身的研究议题。在此过程中,逐渐建构起来的生态系统服务地理学,不仅可以为生态系统服务研究提供学科支撑,同时可以丰富和拓展地理学的研究内容。本文在评述生态系统服务研究历程和发展趋势的基础上,分析了地理学参与生态系统服务研究的逻辑必然性以及面临的机遇与挑战。为了推进生态系统服务研究的“地理化”转向,我们提议发展生态系统服务地理学,并初步描绘了生态系统服务地理学的学科框架,包括定义、研究范畴、研究内容及主要研究议题等。  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯理论的逐次迭代非线性AVA反演方法     

代荣获  张繁昌  刘汉卿  李灿灿 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2014,44(6):2026

常规AVA三参数反演方法均基于横波速度与纵波速度之比γ为常数这一假设条件,且常被近似地取为0.5。然而在许多情况下γ并不为常数,而是在横向与纵向都渐变。若一概假定γ等于0.5,反演出的岩性参数势必要偏离真实值,因此有必要合理地选择γ。笔者基于贝叶斯理论,提出逐次迭代非线性AVA的反演方法。该方法把γ看成横向与纵向都渐变的反演初始背景,通过给定初始模型计算初始背景γ,并采用逐次迭代的策略求解该反演问题,解决了关于γ的选取问题以及由于引入变γ值而带来的非线性问题,提高了AVA三参数反演结果的精确度。  相似文献